You would be forgiven for thinking that the casually attired Nelson Alexander team were off duty today, but this was simply business as usual with a difference. The team would be donating their fees for 12 First Avenue to e.motion21, a not-for-profit organisation, hence the white polos and jeans to focus attention on the community work. Well done Cameron and all at Nelson Alexander, great initiative. This interesting offering hasn’t reached the vendor’s price, so why not give Cam a call on 0415 284 844. Good report Randall.
At 6.00pm on Saturday, it’s official – we are continuing to fall – but those falls are becoming more widespread.
In the final week of our three week May 100 Auction Test, we can now say that last week’s comments (of a flattening market) look “courageous” on today’s market evidence.
The Clearance Rate for $2m+ Inner Melbourne family homes was 49% on the 38 auctions we covered.
Sorry Mal and Gina, did you say 49%? That’s the sort of number we thought only Bombers and Saints supporters would have to deal with in 2018.
This time last year on the same weekend the Clearance Rate was 88%.
James Bidderman (bidders per auction) was 0.8 bidders per auction and this on low stock numbers for May. This time last year it was 2.2. For every 1 bidder today, there were 3 bidders last year.
Let’s talk about Kew again: today there was one lousy bidder (well probably a very nice person) for 5 auctions. Last week 6 from 7 didn’t sell.
On the home in Glen Iris last week that went for a record price, there were more buyers than we counted at ALL the auctions we covered in Boroondara today.
Almost all the Inner East discretionary sellers have left the building, along with Elvis and the foreign buyers. Only those that must or really want to sell, remain after today’s rout.
It’s far from all bad news, as long as you are patient, doctor.
Actually, if you are trading up, now could be a $1m to $2m better time for exchanging homes, than a year ago.
We buy and organise the selling for a number of medical specialists, dentists, anaesthetists and other health professionals.
Rule number one: What is the definition of insanity?
To repeat the same thing, hoping for a different result.
Let us explain via the Kew results today.
1. Kew still remains a key Inner suburb; close to schools, parks, near great shops and parts well served by public transport. Same today as last year.
2. However, sellers, today spent an average of $20,000 on their marketing campaigns to attract 1 bidder for 5 auctions – that’s $100,000 a bidder. If you add in last weeks results, where we have seen 1 in 12 homes sold under the hammer, then:
that’s $100,000 a bidder to achieve a result under the hammer, that’s a less than 9% chance of happening.
WOW!
And why do this – well that’s how they’ve always done it.
Mmmmm, what’s that medical definition again?
Ok, maybe ring the mentally healthy Gina 0457 835 255 or the marginally challenged Mal.
3. Buyers, in the Kew (or any other Inner) market who do not have a good buying plan, will in a years time either have;
- bought the wrong place for too much money
- got lucky
- still be looking
We’re all for luck if it makes sense to you. If it doesn’t then call Lucky Gina on 0457 835 255.
Different times call for different strategies, lest we all go insane, doctor.
$100,000 per bidder with a < 9% chance – powerful call to action isn’t it?
May Market 2017 v last market (Opening Feb 2018 Market) v now – May 2018 Market
But Mal and Gina, the internet site is still filling up with listings.
That’s the stale one’s – the ones that have gone to auction but haven’t sold.
The Stale rate – which measures properties that remain unsold after a pass-in, is at 80% after 2 weeks.
We went back and checked the 10 that we reported passed-in at auction on May 5 and only 2 of those 10 have sold. If this keeps going into spring, then the market begins to feed/choke on its own leftovers and prices drop. As sellers become more desperate and lower prices to sell, they drag the whole market down, even the good homes eventually go down (IF YOU CHOOSE TO SELL).
When the market heats up we see the reverse – like life, home buying is all relative.
In a downward spiral market, the negativity builds and the inertia expands until eventually something happens, such as, those with their hand firmly on the brakes (ScoMo and the fun guys and girls at APRA) ease it back a tad – or we have a major unexpected interruption – or simply, demand and supply pushes its ugly head all the way through the “glad-wrap” like ceiling, that is currently holding prices down.
Politicians are reducing negative gearing and avoiding a public political policy change by tightening the screws on interest-only lending – it’s actually a smart move – well done.
The banks are reducing the number of homes onto the market by strangling bridging finance – smart and not so smart move – hard for oldies to buy first (we’re conservative remember) and then sell, freeing up stock for youngins.
2 years ago with the Big 4, it was show any LVR, even one over 100% and they’d show you a loan document to sign. Now the banker’s conversation is almost “we will lend if you can put the same amount of cash, that you want to borrow into our bank. I think then the credit boys and girls will tick off your loan.”
It has been a great, but temporary, play by our leaders.
The main reason we are in the pickle is still not even being talked about.
We as a community are simply looking for finger in the dyke solutions – but we call those fingers a fancy name – we call them infrastructure.
I wish we could see that expanded freeways are nothing more than a finger in the dyke. If only we could extract those fingers and put them on the population discussion button.
Skilled Immigration = More Population into cities. More Population = Increased stress for those already here and those skilled migrants who are coming.
That’s a negative but the big positive for us oldies is, it gives us such a robust market to sell into.
Rapid immigration was a great idea 30, even 20 years ago, but great ideas don’t last forever, like Coke or Fat-free or Flares.
Actually, I think flares are still ok at the disco – but I digress.
We don’t think below needs any explanation
The lone Volcanologist out of 38 auctions covered today. Hats off to Andrew McCann. 63 Wheatland Road, Malvern, under the hammer $2,955,000, 4 bidders. Go on Carla, give him another kick in………he deserves it for not bidding more.
Malvern, 63 Wheatland Road (Andrew McCann, Jellis Craig) under the hammer, $2,955,000, 4 bidders.
The Magician, The Fashionista and Now the PowerLifter. Jeremy Fox, Power Lifted 2 Torresdale Road Toorak after the auction by over $400,000 to $4,425,000. It passed-in at $4m with 0 bidders. C’mon Foxy, you sold it, cheer up!
Toorak, 2 Torresdale Road ( Jeremy Fox, RT Edgar) after auction, $4,425,000, 0 bidders.
Bidderman below is for each area and is over three weeks – not just today, for all you stats freaks out there, checking our work.
31 South Road, Brighton, David Hart. Under the hammer $3,701,500, 3 bidders.
Brighton, 31 South Road (David Hart, Buxton) under the hammer, $3,701,500, 3 bidders.
Port Melbourne, 342 Bay Street (Sam Paynter, Greg Hocking Holdsworth) $2,403,000, 3 bidders.
Middle Park, 117 Neville Street (Kaine Lanyon, Marshall White) $2,085,000, 2 bidders.
So let me get this straight, mate. My name’s Fraser and your name is……..Oh, the headphones, ok, so what team do you follow …… ok, are you thinking of placing a bid…….ok thanks for coming. 19 Elgin Avenue, Armadale, sold after auction, 3 bidders undisclosed. Great photo Sim.
Toorak, 10 Scotsburn Grove (Marcus Chiminello, Marshall White) before auction, undisclosed.
Malvern East, 56 Kerferd Street (John Chartres, Thomson) under the hammer, $6,110,000, 2 bidders.
Armadale, 19 Elgin Avenue (Andrew Hayne, Marshall White) after auction, undisclosed, 3 bidders.
27 Ryeburne Avenue, Hawthorn East – under the hammer, 2 bidders $5,200,000, James Tostevin. WOW 2 bidders that was a record today for Inner East. Good photo week Rhi.
Hawthorn East, 27 Ryeburne Avenue (James Tostevin, Marshall White) under the hammer, $5,200,000, 2 bidders.
Hawthorn, 24 Glen Street (Campbell Ward, Jellis Craig) before auction, undisclosed.
Glen Iris, 23 Iris Road (Andrew James, Hocking Stuart) under the hammer, $2,302,000, 2 bidders.
We think what many of us are feeling at auctions these days. 2 Hartpury Avenue, Elwood – Jesse Raeburn. Passed in $2,000,000 – 0 bidders.
Kew, 42 Stevenson Street. Bought after auction, undisclosed, 0 bidders.
Armadale, 40 Hampden Road. Passed in, $4,850,000, 1 bidder.
Brighton, 5 Stanley Street. Passed in, $3,000,000, 0 bidders.
